The Year 2000; A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years

New York: The Macmillan Company, 1967. First Printing [stated]. Hardcover. Good/Good. xxviii, [2], 431, [3] pages. Figures. Tables. Index. DJ slightly soiled, small tears & chips along top & bottom edges of DJ, small rough spot ins front flyleaf. Herman Kahn (February 15, 1922 - July 7, 1983) was a founder of the Hudson Institute and one of the preeminent futurists of the latter part of the twentieth century. He originally came to prominence as a military strategist and systems theorist while employed at the RAND Corporation. He became known for analyzing the likely consequences of nuclear war and recommending ways to improve survivability, making him one of three historical inspirations for the title character of Stanley Kubrick's classic black comedy film satire Dr. Strangelove. His theories contributed heavily to the development of the nuclear strategy of the United States. This is the first volume of the studies done under the Commission on the Year 2000, sponsored by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and supported by the Corning Glass Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation. In 1967, Herman Kahn and Anthony J. Wiener published The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years, which included contributions from staff members of the Hudson Institute and an introduction by Daniel Bell. Table XVIII in the document contains a list called "One Hundred Technical Innovations Very Likely in the Last Third of the Twentieth Century". The book he and Mr. Kahn wrote was "The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-three Years," and its publication was a milestone in the futurism fad of the 1960s. The book combined multifarious elements, from the insights of Aristotle to sophisticated statistical analysis, to create what the authors called "a framework for speculation."

About half of its 100 predictions panned out — not including 150-year life spans or months of hibernation for humans.
But accuracy mattered less than what Mr. Wiener called "reducing the role of thoughtlessness" in making societal choices. Clarification, not prophecy, was the goal. The first ten predictions, in which they 'batted a thousand', were:
Multiple applications of lasers.
Extreme high-strength structural materials.
New or improved superperformance fabrics.
New or improved materials for equipment and appliances.
New airborne vehicles (ground-effect vehicles, giant or supersonic jets, VTOL, STOL).
Extensive commercial applications of shaped-charge explosives.
More reliable and longer-range weather forecasting.
Extensive and/or intensive expansion of tropical agriculture and forestry.
New sources of power for fixed installations.
New sources of power for ground transportation.