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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't
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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't Paperback - 2015 - 1st Edition

by Nate Silver

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Reader reviews for The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't

From the publisher

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER - The groundbreaking exploration of probability and uncertainty that explains how to make better predictions in a world drowning in data, from the nation's foremost political forecaster--updated with insights into the pandemic, journalism today, and polling

One of The Wall Street Journal's Ten Best Works of Nonfiction of the Year

"Could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade."--The New York Times Book Review

Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox" The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work in sports and politics, Nate Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how to seek truth from data. In The Signal and the Noise, Silver visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He discovers that what the most accurate ones have in common is a superior command of probability--as well as a healthy dose of humility.

With everything from the global economy to the fight against disease hanging on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.

Details

  • Title The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't
  • Author Nate Silver
  • Binding Paperback
  • Edition number 1st
  • Edition 1
  • Pages 576
  • Volumes 1
  • Language ENG
  • Publisher Penguin Books, NY USA
  • Publication date 2015-02-03
  • Illustrated Yes
  • Features Bibliography, Illustrated, Index
  • ISBN 9780143125082 / 0143125087
  • Weight 1.15 lbs (0.52 kg)
  • Dimensions 8.3 x 5.4 x 1.1 in (21.08 x 13.72 x 2.79 cm)
  • Reading level 1260
  • Themes
    • Aspects (Academic): Political
  • Category Mathematics
  • Library of Congress subjects Bayesian statistical decision theory, Forecasting
  • Dewey Decimal Code 519.542

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Citations

  • New York Times Book Review, 03/01/2015, Page 28

About the author

Nate Silver is the founder of FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. He writes the Substack "Silver Bulletin."

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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't
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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't

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The Signal and the Noise : Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't
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The Signal and the Noise : Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't

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The Signal and the Noise : Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't
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The Signal and the Noise : Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't

by Silver, Nate

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The Signal and the Noise : Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't
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The Signal and the Noise : Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't

by Silver, Nate

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The Signal and the Noise : Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't
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The Signal and the Noise : Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't

by Silver, Nate

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ISBN 10 / ISBN 13
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The Signal and the Noise : Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't
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The Signal and the Noise : Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't

by Silver, Nate

  • Used
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ISBN 10 / ISBN 13
9780143125082 / 0143125087
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Description:
Penguin Publishing Group. Used - Good. Former library copy. Pages intact with minimal writing/highlighting. The binding may be loose and creased. Dust jackets/supplements are not included. Includes library markings. Stock photo provided. Product includes identifying sticker. Better World Books: Buy Books. Do Good.
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The Signal and the Noise : Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't
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The Signal and the Noise : Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't

by Silver, Nate

  • Used
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ISBN 10 / ISBN 13
9780143125082 / 0143125087
Quantity available
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Item price
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Description:
Penguin Publishing Group. Used - Very Good. Former library copy. Pages intact with possible writing/highlighting. Binding strong with minor wear. Dust jackets/supplements may not be included. Includes library markings. Stock photo provided. Product includes identifying sticker. Better World Books: Buy Books. Do Good.
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Item price
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