Home Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke (ISBN: 9780735216372)

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Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts Paperback - 2019

Name: Thinking in Bets Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Price: 9.34 USD
Availability: InStock
Author: Annie Duke
ISBN: 9780735216372

by Annie Duke

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This seller has earned a 3.82 of 5 Stars rating from internet customers.

3.82 / 5 (22247 total reviews)

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Review summary

This seller has earned a 3.82 of 5 Stars rating from internet customers.

3.82 / 5 (22247 total reviews)

Readers broadly praised Annie Duke’s central premise—that life resembles poker more than chess—and valued her focus on probabilistic thinking, separating decision quality from outcomes, and practical tools like decision groups and decision diaries. Many found the writing clear, accessible, and occasionally eye-opening, with engaging anecdotes from poker and sports. However, a significant number criticized the book as repetitive, pop-science-lite, and derivative of works like Thinking, Fast and Slow and Superforecasting, saying it stretches a strong 30-page idea into a full book and offers uneven depth in examples and business application. Overall sentiment skews moderately positive: recommended for newcomers to decision science, less essential for well-read veterans.

Readers say this book is:

insightfulrepetitiveaccessiblepracticalthought-provokingactionableanecdote-heavyshallow at timesframework-orientedquick read

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From the publisher

NATIONAL BESTSELLER - Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result in "the ultimate guide to thinking about risk" (Charles Duhigg, author of The Power of Habit).

"A big favorite among investors these days."--The New York Times

"Outstanding."--Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal

In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?

Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?

Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.

By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

Details

Title Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Author Annie Duke
Binding Paperback
Pages 288
Volumes 1
Language ENG
Publisher Portfolio
Publication date 2019-05-07
Features Bibliography, Index
ISBN 9780735216372 / 0735216371
Weight 0.5 lbs (0.23 kg)
Dimensions 8.1 x 5.4 x 0.8 in (20.57 x 13.72 x 2.03 cm)
Category Business / Economics / Finance
Library of Congress subjects Decision making, Management games
Library of Congress Catalogue Number 2017042666
Dewey Decimal Code 658.403

About the author

Annie Duke is a World Series of Poker bracelet winner, the winner of the 2004 Tournament of Champions and the only woman to win the NBC National Poker Heads Up Championship. Now, as a professional speaker and decision strategist, she merges her poker expertise with her cognitive psychology graduate work at UPenn. She is a founder of How I Decide, a non-profit that creates curricula and tools to improve decision making and critical thinking skills for under-served middle schoolers.

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