BIBLIO is the largest independent book marketplace in the world, with over 100 million books.

Skip to content

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You
Stock photo: cover may vary

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You Paperback - 2002 - 1st Edition

by Gerd Gigerenzer; Gerd Gigerenzer (Other)

Add to wish list

Reader reviews for Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

From the publisher

At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics.
Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics.
Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors.
Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity.
To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap.
This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.

First line

During a routine medical visit at a Virginia hospital in the mid-1990s, Susan, a 26-year-old single mother, was screened for HIV.

Details

  • Title Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You
  • Author Gerd Gigerenzer; Gerd Gigerenzer (Other)
  • Binding Paperback
  • Edition number 1st
  • Edition 1
  • Pages 320
  • Volumes 1
  • Language ENG
  • Publisher Simon & Schuster
  • Publication date 2002-06-05
  • Illustrated Yes
  • Features Bibliography, Illustrated, Index
  • ISBN 9780743254236 / 0743254236
  • Weight 1.06 lbs (0.48 kg)
  • Dimensions 8.9 x 5.84 x 0.84 in (22.61 x 14.83 x 2.13 cm)
  • Category Education / Teaching
  • Library of Congress subjects Uncertainty, Probabilities
  • Library of Congress Catalogue Number 2002017010
  • Dewey Decimal Code 519.2

About the author

Gerd Gigerenzer is director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin, Germany. He has taught at several universities, including the University of Chicago and the University of Virginia, and has been a Fellow at the Center of Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences at Stanford University.

More Copies for Sale

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You
Stock photo: cover may vary

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

by Gigerenzer, Gerd

  • Used
Condition
Used
ISBN 10 / ISBN 13
9780743254236 / 0743254236
Quantity available
1
Seller
Item price
A$3.60
A$4.32 Delivery to USA

Show details

Description:
Simon & Schuster. Used - Good. A sound copy with only light wear. Overall a solid copy at a great price!
Add to wish list
Item price
A$3.60
A$4.32 Delivery to USA
Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You
Stock photo: cover may vary

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

by Gerd Gigerenzer

  • Used
Condition
Used
ISBN 10 / ISBN 13
9780743254236 / 0743254236
Quantity available
1
Seller
Item price
A$7.37
A$5.74 Delivery to USA

Show details

Description:
Simon & Schuster. Used - Very Good. Very Good condition. A copy that may have a few cosmetic defects. May also contain light spine creasing or a few markings such as an owner’s name, short gifter’s inscription or light stamp.
Add to wish list
Item price
A$7.37
A$5.74 Delivery to USA
Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You
Stock photo: cover may vary

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

by Gigerenzer, Gerd

  • Used
  • Good
  • Paperback
Condition
Good
Binding
Paperback
ISBN 10 / ISBN 13
9780743254236 / 0743254236
Quantity available
1
Seller
Item price
A$9.04
Free Delivery to USA

Show details

Description:
Simon & Schuster, 3/19/2003 12:00:01 A. paperback. Good. 0.8000 in x 9.0000 in x 6.0000 in. The cover shows normal wear.
Add to wish list
Item price
A$9.04
Free Delivery to USA
Calculated Risks : How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

Calculated Risks : How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

by Gerd Gigerenzer

  • Used
  • Good
  • Paperback
Condition
Good
Binding
Paperback
ISBN 10 / ISBN 13
9780743254236 / 0743254236
Quantity available
3
Seller
Item price
A$9.34
Free Delivery to USA

Show details

Description:
Simon & Schuster, 2003. Paperback. Good. Disclaimer:Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less.Dust jacket quality is not guaranteed.
Add to wish list
Item price
A$9.34
Free Delivery to USA
Calculated Risks : How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

Calculated Risks : How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

by Gerd Gigerenzer

  • Used
  • Very good
  • Paperback
Condition
Very good
Binding
Paperback
ISBN 10 / ISBN 13
9780743254236 / 0743254236
Quantity available
3
Seller
Item price
A$9.37
Free Delivery to USA

Show details

Description:
Simon & Schuster, 2003. Paperback. Very Good. Disclaimer:May have limited writing in cover pages. Pages are unmarked. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less.Dust jacket quality is not guaranteed.
Add to wish list
Item price
A$9.37
Free Delivery to USA
Calculated Risks : How to Know When Numbers Deceive You
Stock photo: cover may vary

Calculated Risks : How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

by Gigerenzer, Gerd

  • Used
Condition
Used
ISBN 10 / ISBN 13
9780743254236 / 0743254236
Quantity available
1
Seller
Item price
A$10.67
Free Delivery to USA

Show details

Description:
Simon & Schuster. Used - Good. Pages intact with minimal writing/highlighting. The binding may be loose and creased. Dust jackets/supplements are not included. Stock photo provided. Product includes identifying sticker. Better World Books: Buy Books. Do Good.
Add to wish list
Item price
A$10.67
Free Delivery to USA
Calculated Risks : How to Know When Numbers Deceive You
Stock photo: cover may vary

Calculated Risks : How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

by Gigerenzer, Gerd

  • Used
Condition
Used
ISBN 10 / ISBN 13
9780743254236 / 0743254236
Quantity available
1
Seller
Item price
A$10.67
Free Delivery to USA

Show details

Description:
Simon & Schuster. Used - Good. Pages intact with minimal writing/highlighting. The binding may be loose and creased. Dust jackets/supplements are not included. Stock photo provided. Product includes identifying sticker. Better World Books: Buy Books. Do Good.
Add to wish list
Item price
A$10.67
Free Delivery to USA
Calculated Risks : How to Know When Numbers Deceive You
Stock photo: cover may vary

Calculated Risks : How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

by Gigerenzer, Gerd

  • Used
Condition
Used
ISBN 10 / ISBN 13
9780743254236 / 0743254236
Quantity available
2
Seller
Item price
A$10.67
Free Delivery to USA

Show details

Description:
Simon & Schuster. Used - Good. Former library copy. Pages intact with minimal writing/highlighting. The binding may be loose and creased. Dust jackets/supplements are not included. Includes library markings. Stock photo provided. Product includes identifying sticker. Better World Books: Buy Books. Do Good.
Add to wish list
Item price
A$10.67
Free Delivery to USA
Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You
Stock photo: cover may vary

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

by Gigerenzer, Gerd

  • Used
  • Paperback
  • first
Condition
Used
Edition
1
Binding
Paperback
ISBN 10 / ISBN 13
9780743254236 / 0743254236
Quantity available
1
Seller
Item price
A$13.26
Free Delivery to USA

Show details

Description:
Simon & Schuster, 2003-03-19. 1. paperback. Used: Good. 6.00x1.10x9.00. Buy with confidence. Excellent Customer Service & Return policy.
Add to wish list
Item price
A$13.26
Free Delivery to USA
Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You
Stock photo: cover may vary

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

by Gigerenzer, Gerd

  • New
  • Paperback
  • first
Condition
New
Edition
1
Binding
Paperback
ISBN 10 / ISBN 13
9780743254236 / 0743254236
Quantity available
6
Seller
Item price
A$22.95
Free Delivery to USA

Show details

Description:
Simon & Schuster, 2003-03-19. 1. paperback. New. 6.00x1.10x9.00. Buy with confidence. Excellent Customer Service & Return policy.
Add to wish list
Item price
A$22.95
Free Delivery to USA